Australia Actually Might Win Eurovision 2015 This Weekend. Here’s Why.

It’s my favourite week of the year! After semi-finals this morning and tomorrow, this Saturday (or Sunday morning in Australia) our TV will be filled with the glitz, costume changes and absolute tackiness of Eurovision. How could we not be excited?

For Australians this year the contest is even better. Guy Sebastian will be representing our nation for the first time with his song, ‘Tonight Again’ and then Lee Lin Chin will grace our screens to present Australia’s votes. That’s right, we get to vote! Even more exciting than that, it seems like Sebastian has a real chance of winning.

The choice of Sebastian has been panned by many Eurovision fans, and fears hit fever pitch with the release of his song earlier in the year. It just didn’t seem to be in the spirit of the completion. Sebastian made things even worse when he decided to scale back his planned performance in Vienna, saying the pyrotechnics and lights were ‘too much’. It’s like he doesn’t even know what Eurovision is all about!

But according to pundits, Sebastian has a real chance. How, you ask? To understand that you need to understand two important things about Eurovision.

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It’s Basically The Cold War, Only No One’s Gonna Die

Eurovision is not just about songs. It’s also about politics.

Watch the voting and you will quickly pick up some patterns. Votes are regularly traded in political, or perhaps cultural, patterns between the former Soviet states, as well as the Baltic, Balkan and Scandinavian nations. The UK always gives votes to Ireland, and every year Greece gives points to Cyprus, with Cyprus quickly returning the favour.

Commentators have often complained about this voting pattern in Eurovision, with jury votes introduced a number of years ago as a way to counteract it. But the politics is still there, and Australia could potentially be the beneficiary of that this way.

The thing about the political voting is that you can’t just rely on a bloc — you need to be able to transcend into the other blocs that exist. And Australia could do that this year — we have no strong alliances, and in turn no big enemies. That means we can capture votes from all around Europe, unlike the UK, who seem unable to catch votes from anyone at all.

More than that, we are the newcomer of the competition, and in turn the talk of the town. This has given us a lot of very positive coverage, which is definitely helping our chances. In recent years Europe has liked to reward the newcomers; when Italy returned in 2011, they came second with one of the blandest Eurovision songs I’ve ever heard. Azerbaijan entered the contest in 2008, coming third in 2009 and then winning in 2011, again with something pretty dull (2011 was a confusing year).

Australia’s politics have lined up pretty well, and we may be able to take advantage of that.

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Europeans Don’t Vote Like Australians Do

If you were to point to why Australia loves Eurovision so much we’d talk about the ridiculous songs, the wind machines, the crazy costumes and the key changes. Now, don’t get me wrong, Europeans love this stuff too, but it’s not always what makes a winning song. Just look at some of the success stories of the past few years.

While Conchita Wurst took out last year’s crown, she was almost pipped at the post by the Netherlands’ The Common Linnets , whose song sounded like it should have been played at a hipster café in Melbourne instead of on the Eurovision stage. Emmelie De Forest’s ‘Only Teardrops’, which won for Denmark in 2013, was certainly more interesting, but definitely didn’t have the tackiness that makes Eurovision so popular. And I will never understand how ‘Running Scared’ by Ell and Nikki won for Azerbaijan in 2011, particularly when compared with the entrants for Sweden, Ireland and the United Kingdom that year.

Go to the other end of the spectrum and songs that are popular in Australia often completely bomb in Europe. Scooch’s ‘Flying the Flag for You’ is probably the epitome of awfully amazing Eurovision songs, but only managed to be given points from two countries. Other songs such as Bonnie Tyler’s (probably) drunken attempt at ‘Believe In Me’, ‘Irelande Douze Pointe’ by Dustin the Turkey in 2008, and of course the amazingly named ‘We are the Winners of Eurovision’ by LT United in 2006 all failed when they hit the big stage. Of course there are exceptions to this rule, with my favourite ever Eurovision song, Verka Seduchka’s ‘Dancing Lasha Tumbai’ almost taking the title in 2007.

Australia could also benefit from Eurovision’s tendency to run with themes. Last year it was strong ballads from women, and this year it seems to be electro pop (with both Sweden and the UK expected to do well this year). And Sebastian’s song fits right into that. It might not be what we consider a Eurovision spectacular, but it may well just be the right song for the right moment.

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Who Are Our Competitors?

So if we have a chance, then who are our competitors? According to current betting odds there are three other countries ahead of us in the race for the crown. From least to most favoured, they are:

Russia

With a strong Soviet bloc always voting for them, Russia often does well. They won the competition last in 2008 with Dima Bilan’s ‘Believe’ (another boring song if you ask me) and came second in 2012 with probably the oldest competitors Eurovision has ever seen.

Russia’s entrant this year is Polina Gagarina, who is singing ‘A Million Voices’. It’s a good song that seems to be trying to emulate the success of the female ballads from last year by Concita Wurst and Sanna Nielsen from Sweden (who came third). That might be Russia’s undoing, though; while countries often try to emulate the success of the past, they rarely succeed.

Italy

Italy has been biting at the heels of Eurovision ever since it reentered the competition in 2011 (Italy only entered once between 1993 and 2011). On their return they automatically jumped to second place, and since then they’ve featured twice in the top ten. This year Italy is hoping to go one better.

Italy’s song is called ‘Grande Amore’ by the group Il Volo. It’s a passionate ballad by a group of some pretty good looking boys. I’m not the biggest fan of the song, but if the band replicates the fight scene that appears in their video then maybe they’ll have a shot.

Sweden

Sweden is one of the most successful countries in Eurovision history and has done particularly well in the past five years. After a bit of a dry run they came third in 2011, won in 2012 with Loreen’s Euphoria, and then came third again last year.

And this year, Sweden is bringing it again. Their entrant is Måns Zelmerlöw with his song ‘Heroes’. Zelmerlöw’s song seems perfect for this competition — it’s a catchy techno pop from a popular nation. If Zelmerlöw’s stage performance was as good as it was in the MelodiFestivalen (Sweden’s entry competition) he will be hard to beat.

So there it is, Australia. Get ready, because this weekend’s going to be big. And if all goes well we could be back in the competition again next year. Happy Eurovision!

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SBS will broadcast both semi-finals and the grand finale live on Wednesday May 20, Friday May 22 and Sunday morning May 24, from 5am.

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Simon Copland is a freelance writer and climate campaigner. He blogs here and tweets at@SimonCopland.