A Brief History Of Australia’s Chaotic Leadership Spills

Defence Minister Peter Dutton has reiterated his support for Prime Minister Scott Morrison and clarified that he has “100 percent no” plans to launch a challenge for the top job amid rumours of a potential leadership spill.

The support comes after former NSW Premier Bob Carr publicly accused Dutton of being the mysterious cabinet minister behind the leaked texts between a Liberal MP and Gladys Berejiklian, in which Morrison was dubbed “a complete psycho.” Dutton has denied the allegation and has not ruled out taking legal action against Carr.

Speaking with The Today Show on Tuesday morning, Dutton discussed the tweets — likening Carr to everyone’s “crazy uncle” — and noted that he has full support for Morrison and hopes the texting scandal doesn’t detract from the election campaign.

“It is scrappy at the moment. There is no question about that, I’m not going to lie about it. But I think once we get into a campaign, people don’t give a, you know, toss really about any of this,” said Dutton.

When asked if he has any plans to challenge him for the top job, he responded “100 percent no.”

“One hundred percent no, I have been loyal to Scott Morrison from day one,” said Dutton.

However, as we know all too well after having six different Prime Ministers in the space of ten years, Australia is never really that far from its next leadership spill. Let’s have a walk down memory lane.

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A Brief History Of The Leadership Spill, Which Peter Dutton Is Definitely *Not* About To Pull

A leadership spill is an Australian tradition at this point, with the first federal spill taking place way back in 1931 — when then-Assistant Minister for Industry Jack Beasley successfully challenged PM James Scullin.

Gough Whitlam successfully pulled off two spills as Opposition Leader before ultimately getting axed by Governor-General Sir John Kerr when he finally landed the job as PM. John Howard, Malcolm Fraser and even Bob Hawke had their fair share of spills back in their day.

To put it simply, leadership spills have been around almost as long as Australian politics itself has.

However, it wasn’t until the turn of the 2010s that Australian politics went well and truly off the rails and we ended up with six different Prime Ministers in a wildly short period of time. For a while there, you would’ve been forgiven for having no idea who was actually running the country.

The Chaos Decade

In a time long before the pandemic, the 2010s, Australia’s biggest problem wasn’t lockdowns, vaccines or border closures. No. It was — not to put too fine of a point on it — who the hell is running this country, anyway. This is what I like to call “The Chaos Decade.”

Labor Spills

After his iconic Kevin ’07 victory, Rudd remained in the top job for just two years and 203 days before his first spill. For context, Howard held the job for a whopping 11 years and 267 days before him.

On June 24, 2010, Rudd was challenged by then-deputy PM Julia Gillard for the leadership of the party. The challenge came after four members of the party told her that enough MPs had lost faith in Rudd to make the challenge feasible for her. She won the election unopposed after Rudd declined to contest and simply resigned from his position.

A snap election was then called for August 21 of that year, which resulted in the first hung parliament in 1940. However, Gillard was eventually able to win the support of one Greens and three Independent MPs and successfully formed a minority government. She was sworn in for a second time on September 14.

At this point, Rudd accepted an offer to become Minister for Foreign Affairs. But like her predecessor, Gillard failed to complete her full term in office before — you guessed it — another spill. After just three years and three days in office, another leadership spill occurred on June 26, 2013. This time, with Rudd clawing back his role as PM.

Gillard vowed that she would retire from politics if she lost the vote, urging any challengers to do the same. Rudd accepted the challenge, also vowing to retire if he didn’t win.

Ultimately, Rudd won the vote 57-45 and was sworn in as PM on June 27. However, he would hold the position for just 83 days before ultimately losing the election to Tony Abbott.

Liberal Spills

But if you thought a change of government would spell the end of the spills, think again because it wasn’t long before the Liberal Party had its fair share.

Abbott was sworn in as PM on September 18, 2013, but would hold the position for just shy of two years (one year, 362 days, to be precise) before being sensationally ousted in favour of Malcolm Turnbull on September 15, 2015.

Turnbull requested the ballot on September 14, 2015. He ultimately defeated Abbott 54-44, while Julie Bishop kept her position as deputy after beating Kevin Andrews in a landslide 70-30 victory.

A year later, in July 2016, Turnbull won the election and kicked off his second term in office. As was to be expected after three spills in a row, Turnbull quickly became the fifth Prime Minister in a row not to serve a full term in office.

On August 21, 2018 — after two years and 343 days — we entered what has been nicknamed “spill week.”

Spill Week, Or How To Lose A Prime Minister In Seven Days

The first of two spills in what was a truly hectic week in Australian politics was called by Turnbull himself in a regularly scheduled party room meeting on August 21. The spill was called off the back of media reports that Dutton — then Minister for Home Affairs — was considering a challenge.

Understandably, after spills resulted in the ousting of the three previous PMs, Turnbull was keen to end any speculation.

Dutton did submit himself as a candidate for leadership but was quickly defeated 48-35 by Turnbull. Following this, Dutton immediately resigned from the ministry and moved to the backbench.

Following his defeat, social media lit up with the hashtag #putoutyourpotatoes, poking fun at Dutton’s failed attempt at a spill — an ode to the #putoutyouronions trend following Abbott’s ousting in 2015.

Lest we forget #PutOutYourPotatoes pic.twitter.com/1YxKI9BnPY

— Brinjen Russell (She/her)🎀 (@BrinjenArt) August 21, 2018

Two days later, Dutton re-entered the chat, calling for a second spill motion. However, Turnbull refused to call the second spill without seeing a list of signatures supporting it, essentially telling Dutton to “prove it.”

Turnbull vowed that he would interpret Dutton’s numbers as a vote of no confidence and would not stand to contest another spill. When Dutton eventually pulled together the numbers, this paved the way for both Scott Morrison and Julie Bishop to throw their hat in the ring for a shot at the top job.

Bishop was quickly defeated in the first round of voting, with Morrison eventually beating out Dutton with a vote of 45-40.

Morrison was sworn in on August 24, 2018 — with Josh Frydenberg being sworn in as Treasurer, the role Morrison previously held. A year later, in 2019, Morrison won the federal election and continued his tenure as PM.

If he can make it through the next few months, he will be the first Prime Minister since John Howard to last a full term in the top job.

So, Can We Trust Dutton?

While Dutton today has claimed Morrison has his full support, it cannot be forgotten that he made eerily similar comments back in 2018 — just days before calling for a spill against Malcolm Turnbull.

In relation to media stories today, just to make very clear, the Prime Minister has my support and I support the policies of the Government. My position hasn’t changed from my comments last Thursday.

— Peter Dutton (@PeterDutton_MP) August 17, 2018

This isn’t to say there will be a spill before we head to the polling booths later this year, nor is it any indication that Dutton would actually become PM if a spill were to occur.

What About Frydenberg?

While Dutton has been making headlines over the possibility of a leadership spill, treasurer Josh Frydenberg shouldn’t be ruled out as a potential leader out of this either.

When asked — point blank — if he would challenge for leadership before the next election, Frydenberg refused to give a straight answer.

Sky was careful to ask Frydenberg about challenging for the leadership before the election (knowing that it won't happen until after).

"Albanese's trying to sneak into government .. he's strutting around the place like he's already in government"

Which one is it, Josh?#auspol pic.twitter.com/ZyJIu8iBp4

— Squizz (@SquizzSTK) February 6, 2022

Could A Spill Be A Saving Grace For The Liberals?

If history is anything to go off, a spill could actually help the Liberals secure another victory here.

Gillard, Turnbull and Morrison were all able to successfully convert their spill wins into full-blown election victories shortly after taking the top job, so it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibilities that the Liberals could spill in an attempt to secure another term in government.