There’s A New Dominant COVID Strain In NSW And Here’s What You Need To Know About It

Just when we thought we were starting to get on top of COVID, a new Omicron sub-variant has appeared and is threatening to send case numbers skyrocketing once again.

New South Wales recorded a staggering 16,288 cases on Thursday, marking the highest daily case number since January — at the height of the Omicron wave. And according to Health Minister Brad Hazzard, cases could “more than double” over the next six weeks.

Why? Because of the Omicron sub-variant BA.2.

What Is BA.2

The variant that wreaked havoc on much of Australia over Christmas and New Year was the Omicron BA.1 variant — which also infected millions worldwide. The new variant — BA.2, also known as Nextstrain clade 21L — has a different genetic sequence.

BA.2 has recently been declared the dominant strain in New South Wales, so if you’ve recently contracted COVID, there’s a not insignificant chance you have BA.2.

What Is The Government Saying About BA.2?

According to Brad Hazzard, the new BA.2 variant is a “concern” for NSW Heath.

“It’s highly likely …  in only another month or six weeks we could be looking at cases more than double what we’re currently getting,” said Hazzard on Thursday.

Is BA.2 More Contagious Than Regular Omicron?

The original Omicron strain is already highly contagious — and quickly resulted in the highest daily case numbers Australia had seen throughout the entire pandemic — but according to the World Health Organisation (WHO), BA.2 already appears to be more transmissible.

According to UNSW associate professor James Wood, Ba.2 is approximately 25 percent more contagious than the original Omicron strain — which was, obviously, already super contagious.

“It first became clear in Denmark it was more transmissible than Omicron,” Wood told the ABC. “The dominant variant, for about a month, has been BA.2. We’ve started to see that pattern in a number of other countries like the UK and now we’re getting data that’s confirming that’s the case in Australia, in particular NSW.

“We think by the end of the month it will be [account for more than] 90 per cent of the cases [in NSW].”

Is It More Dangerous?

At this point, actual case numbers are far less important than they were in the early days of the pandemic. So while BA.2 may be significantly more transmissible, the important thing to consider is how deadly it is.

According to the World Health Organisation, it doesn’t appear that there is any difference between the two Omicron variants when it comes to severity and lethality.

It’s worth noting that this information is only based on the data observed from South Africa, the UK and Denmark — and this could change as we learn more about the strain. However, at the moment, it doesn’t appear that BA.2 is any more deadly than BA.1.

Dr Wood told the ABC that there’s “no real evidence” BA.2 is more severe, but noted that t’s still important to get your booster shot to protect yourself. However, it’s worth noting that NSW Deputy Chief Health Officer Marianne Gale has stressed that “we don’t have evidence that it is any more or less severe clinically”.

It goes without saying that you should still avoid getting any strain of COVID if at all possible.

How Many Cases Should We Expect?

Obviously, it’s hard to predict cases when movement varies so much — especially amid flooding across most of the east coast — but numbers are expected to rise significantly.

According to Dr Wood, “we can expect cases to rise in 20-30,000 range”. “We’re a bit uncertain when and how high that will get, but that’s the range, we think,” said Wood. “I don’t think we’ll see a big rise in numbers in severe illness.”

However, if BA.2 has a similar severity to the original Omicron variant, we likely won’t see hospitals overwhelmed — even with a big jump in case numbers.