New Poll Doesn’t Show The Libs Losing Next Week’s By-Election. It Shows Them Getting Smashed.

The Liberal Party’s Dave Sharma could lose Saturday’s Wentworth by-election by 10 points, according to a poll that shows a tight race for first place between independent Kerryn Phelps and Labor’s Tim Murray.

If true, the poll represents an extraordinary turn about for the very wealthy, very gay, very Jewish seat: former PM Malcolm Turnbull held the seat on a 17.7 point margin before resigning from parliament following two leadership challenges in a week. The Liberal Party, in the seat’s 60-plus year history, has never lost Wentworth.

Results of the Wentworth By-election Quick Poll are now online. Too close to call, but either @Timpmurray or @drkerrynphelps should win over @DaveSharma roughly 55-45 https://t.co/8RlQfHXxmn#WentworthByElection #WentworthVotes #auspol pic.twitter.com/ZRNEIl8mtN

— Voter Choice Project (@voterchoiceau) October 11, 2018

The poll doesn’t suggest the contest is a sure thing, though. It is notoriously difficult to poll single seats, and other recent polls have suggested different results. According to the ABC, the Liberal Party’s own polling has Sharma trailing Phelps by less than a percentage point. A poll commissioned by the Refugee Council earlier in the month put Phelps at 53 percent on a final two-candidate-preferred tally against Sharma. Another poll, commissioned by independent candidate Licia Heath, had the Liberals beating out Labor by two points in the final tally.

The poll surveyed 736 people and has a margin of error of 3.5 percent.

The battle for Wentworth was thrown open when high profile local Phelps, who has been a City of Sydney councillor and president of the Australian Medical Association, announced her candidacy. Phelps is running on a platform of climate change action, support small businesses and the ending of offshore detention programs for asylum seekers.

Labor’s Murray, a businessman and president of the Tamarama surf life saving club, has equally pushed for stronger climate change policies, as well as protection for the ABC and a boost in funding for Medicare and public education.

Sharma has been the beneficiary of a resource-heavy Liberal Party campaign. Cabinet ministers have stopped by the seat to build up his profile, and there are reports that more than $1 million is being thrown at the campaign. The candidate treads a similar line to Turnbull, supporting progressive issues like marriage equality and climate change action, and encouraging good economic management.

Sharma has been plagued by party loyalists calling for a protest vote in next week’s by-election: former Liberal leader John Hewson recommended voters file a “protest vote” to punish the party for their recent leadership troubles. And Alex Turnbull — Malcolm’s son — put a video up this week suggesting the same thing.

In the end, it’ll be a suite of candidates that decide the race: polls show a healthy number of votes heading towards independent Licia Heath and Greens candidate Dominic Wy Kanak. In a tight race, their preferences could decide the victor.

In real terms, the by-election means little, because whichever candidate wins will only have the seat until next year’s federal election, and it won’t affect the government’s capacity to push through legislation.

But if the Liberal Party loses, it suggests the constituency are unimpressed by August’s leadership spill. And if voters turn on the seventh safest Liberal Party country-wide, that doesn’t bode well for the upcoming federal election.