Here’s What The Polls Say On The Final Day Of The Postal Survey

Here's where things stand and what happens next.

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Remember two months ago? We were so young and carefree. Spring was around the corner. There was hope in the air. Queer Australians were living in a state of relative ease. Sure, things weren’t perfect, but it felt like we were headed in the right direction, y’know?

Hoo boy. Things have changed. That’s because for the last two months the country has been consumed by the terrible, no good, very bad postal survey on marriage equality. Thankfully, it all ends today. The final cut-off is 4.30 this afternoon. After that, the shitshow will be more or less over (kind of).

So where do things stand and what happens next? We’ve got you covered.

What Do The Polls Say?

All of the polls point to a big, fat Yes victory when the results are announced next week. A Guardian Essential poll released today indicates that 64 percent of people who voted in the survey did the right thing and voted for equality, compared to 31 percent who say they voted No.

That’s pretty similar to a Newspoll last week, which showed the Yes vote winning with 62 percent of the vote, compared to the No side’s 35 percent. Both polls show the No side losing around 3 percent in the final weeks of the campaign.

But there was another analysis last week which showed a much closer result. Some boffins at Griffith University looked at social media sentiment over the campaign and concluded that the Yes vote may be headed for a narrow defeat. But the analysis was panned by some experts who say the result shouldn’t be trusted.

Basically, for the No side to win, all of the polling conducted throughout the campaign would have to be pretty catastrophically wrong, and there’s no reason to think it is. So that’s nice.

Cool, What Happens Next?

The results will be announced next Wednesday, November 15, at 10am, by Australia’s head statistician, David Kalisch, at the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ office in Canberra. If you’re not in Canberra, don’t worry, the results will also be posted online and are likely to be broadcast live by the TV networks.

The Yes campaign is hosting a bunch of “results announcement” gatherings on the day (they can’t call them parties, because they can’t admit that they think they’ve won yet). The largest of these will be in Sydney’s Prince Alfred Park, where the leaders of the Yes campaign will be. But there will also be gatherings in the other major capital cities, including at Victoria’s State Library, Hindmarsh Square in Adelaide and King George Square in Brisbane. There’s a full list of Yes campaign parties here. We’ve asked the No campaign if they’ll be throwing any ~cool parties~, and we’ll update this post if they get back to us.

After the result is announced and the gatherings end, I strongly recommend going to your nearest gay bar to celebrate or drown your sorrows.

But if the Yes vote succeeds, the campaign’s leaders won’t have much time to celebrate. They’ll be heading straight to Canberra to make sure politicians pass a same-sex marriage bill ASAP. And you can bet the No campaign and conservative politicians will be doing everything they can to stop it, or to create a bill so full of “religious freedom” protections that no one will be willing to vote for it. Fun!

Can I Still Vote?

[No voters, please don’t read this]

Yes! But time is running out. It’s too late to post it, but you can still drop your form off at your nearest ABS office before 4.30. Here’s a handy list of where those offices are, so get to it!

But also, what have you been doing for the last two months?