Actually, This Is Who Should Win At The Oscars, Assholes
I believe it was me who said, “2023 was the year we all went back to the movies.” A lot of people thought it. But I was the only one brave enough to say it out loud.
On Monday (Sunday, US time), the Oscars ceremony will celebrate this grand return to the cinema by declaring some winners and, most importantly, a lot of losers. But who will these winners be and how much will we resent them? And what about the losers? Will they ever work again? Will they ever laugh or love or find joy in the laughter of children?
I could wait a few days to find out the answers to these questions, but I refuse to, so I’ve outlined exactly who will and should win every Oscar that I’m aware of. It will be a relatively simple yet erudite exercise — with one major caveat casting its shadow over the entire proceedings. A force so powerful and unpredictable, there is no telling what might happen.
I’m speaking, of course, of the Barbenheimer. That’s right. The movies Oppenheimer and Barbie have combined to create a cultural phenomenon that’s haunted us all of 2023 like the Babadook. And on Oscars night? She feeds.
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
This is the first year in a very long time that I have seen virtually all of the best picture nominees. I can’t remember the last time that happened. So I feel especially qualified to make bold, unforgiving judgements about all of these movies. Wait. Sorry, I haven’t seen Anatomy of a Fall. Or American Fiction.
Okay, not off to a great start. But guess what? It doesn’t matter because Oppenheimer is going to win. That’s fine, because it’s a good movie and it’s the exact kind of thing that wins best picture Oscars.
But it’s also not that interesting. Imagine if Poor Things won. Or The Holdovers, which is the best movie on this list. Even better, imagine a world where All of Us Strangers, the best movie of the year based on pure emotional impact, was nominated and won. Just imagine that world. One where art and peace and love all form a heavenly choir, singing just for you and me.
Who Will Win:
Oppenheimer.
Who Should Win:
All of Us Strangers.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
Thanks to the Barbenheimer’s influence, Oppenheimer is going to win a lot of awards and there’s nothing anyone can do to stop it. Except Paul Giamatti. He was great in The Holdovers, perfectly embodying lifelong disappointment.
One thing: It appears that the Academy has not seen All of Us Strangers. Because if they had, they would have nominated Andrew Scott, who was wonderful and heartbreaking as a lonely gay writer trying to come to terms with his relationship to his long-deceased parents. I mean, what does it take for truth and beauty to get some respect around here? Christ, this is making me upset.
Who Will Win:
Daniel Day-Lewis, who thinks he’s done with acting. Nice try, Daniel.
Who Should Win:
Paul Giamatti.
Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K Brown – American Fiction
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr – Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling – Barbie
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
What a lot of people haven’t noticed about this category is that there are two people named Robert nominated. That hasn’t happened since Robert Redford and Robert Pattinson were nominated in 2006 for playing opposite each other in Gentle Lloyd Learns to Love.
As with that year, these two Roberts should cancel each other out this year — after all, as the saying goes, “Two Roberts cancel each other out”. This should clear the path for Mark Ruffalo, who is hilarious in Poor Things. But Robert Donwney Jr is in Oppenheimer, which is going to win most of these awards, so he’ll probably get it. What they should have done is nominate only Roberts. Robert Duvall, Robert Altman, Julia Roberts. Throw them all in there.
Who Will Win:
Robert Downey Jr.
Who Should Win:
Mark Ruffalo.
Best Actress
Annette Bening – Nyad
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan – Maestro
Emma Stone – Poor Things
Let’s be clear: Annette Bening has been great in a lot of movies and she’s due for something. Let’s be clearer: Emma Stone is wonderful in Poor Things. She is wonderful. And she would give a good acceptance speech. Let’s be the most clear we can be: Lily Gladstone carried the emotional core of a 17-hour Martin Scorcese movie. It’s an incredible achievement.
Who Will Win:
Lily Gladstone.
Who Should Win:
Lily Gladstone.
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
America Ferrera – Barbie
Jodie Foster – Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
Emily Blunt surprised me. I thought her role in Oppenheimer was really straightforward and going nowhere interesting. But then she really turned things around at around Hour 12 of that movie. With one speech, she got very complicated very quickly. And that deserves something. But not at the expense of Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s performance in The Holdovers. Her performance as a grieving mother was so unique, even offbeat at times. This is what prizes are for.
Who Will Win:
Da’Vine Joy Randolph.
Who Should Win:
Da’Vine Joy Randolph.
Best Director
Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet
Killers of the Flower Moon – Martin Scorsese
Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan
Poor Things – Yorgos Lanthimos
The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer
Andrew Haigh directed All of Us Strangers, but I don’t see his name on this list, which is strange and offensive. I did love Poor Things, though, so Yorgos Lanthimos can win if he needs to. I also thought Killers of the Flower Moon was great. It’s a huge movie. The Zone of Interest is also really good. Very intense. But the Barbenheimer can’t be denied.
Who Will Win:
Christopher Nolan.
Who Should Win:
Andrew Haigh.
Best Animated Feature Film
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was really entertaining. Nimona was pretty interesting. I had to look up what Robot Dreams was and I’m still not sure I’ve heard of it. I haven’t seen The Boy and the Heron, but it may win because it may feature the final performance of one Daniel Day-Lewis. (It doesn’t. I checked. Still…)
Who Will Win:
The Boy and the Heron.
Who Should Win:
Daniel Day-Lewis.
Best Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Tony McNamara wrote The Favourite, the great show The Great and now Poor Things. Give him the prize.
Who Will Win:
Oppenheimer.
Who Should Win:
Poor Things.
Best Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
Past Lives is a really nice, touching story. May December is super weird and uncomfortable. But The Holdovers has to take this. The writing is so good in it, especially in the interplay between the characters. Sharp and funny and smart and moving. The same might be said of Anatomy of a Fall. But not by me because I haven’t seen it.
Who Will Win:
The Holdovers.
Who Should Win:
The Holdovers.
Best Cinematography
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
El Conde is a super weird, interesting movie. Very glad I saw that. I think pretty much every Martin Scorcese movie looks incredible. Poor Things also looked great. I loved all those weird angles. But Oppenheimer is going to clean up all these awards that non-movie people don’t care about. It’s going to run right through them, just as the Barbenheimer prophesied.
Who Will Win:
Oppenheimer.
Who Should Win:
Poor Things.
Best Costume Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
This is a tough one. I didn’t really think of the people in Napoleon as wearing costumes. I assumed they dressed like that all the time and were told to come to set in their normal clothes. The costumes in Poor Things were absolutely delightful and wild. But Barbie might squeeze through here. The doll is extremely famous for outfits so I’d have to imagine they’ve got an advantage of the suits and fedoras in Oppenheimer. But the Barbenheimer is a wily beast. Mischievous. A trickster.
Who Will Win:
Barbie.
Who Should Win:
Poor Things.
Best Documentary Feature Film
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol
Funny story: I’ve only seen one of these movies: Bobi Wine: The People’s President. And it, like most Oscars documentaries, is well done and well depressing. My hands are pretty much tied here. But I also don’t want to risk the wrath of the Barbenheimer…
Who Will Win:
Barbie.
Who Should Win:
Bobi Wine: The People’s President.
Best Documentary Short Film
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
Guess what? I’ve seen four of these movies. Four! That’s a record for me. Who watches the documentary shorts? No one, that’s who. The ABCs of Book Banning shows how nuts people in the US have gotten over having kids read books by Black people. The Last Repair Shop is very human and touching. The two friends in Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó are downright inspiring. Barbenheimer willing, I’ll reach that age and be as healthy as those women. But I’m going with The Barber of Little Rock, which is a great story about a guy trying to turn around his neighbourhood by empowering people to achieve their financial and career goals.
Who Will Win:
Oppenheimer.
Who Should Win:
The Barber of Little Rock.
Best Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Listen, I didn’t go to film school, so I associate good editing with movies that have lots of cuts and seem faster as a result. Killers of the Flower Moon was 81 hours long but it felt like two.
Who Will Win:
Oppenheimer.
Who Should Win:
Killers of the Flower Moon.
Best International Film
Io Capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Teachers’ Lounge
The Zone of Interest
The Zone of Interest is a very powerful, intense approach to a Holocaust story. But Society of the Snow blew me away with its constant tension. You know that soccer team is going to crash in the Andes and you know what they’re going to do to each other when they get there. (They’re going to eat each other.) But that doesn’t make watching this any easier. It features probably one of the most horrific plane crash scenes ever and there’s a constant sense of claustrophobia and doom. So much doom.
Who Will Win:
The Zone of Interest.
Who Should Win:
Society of the Snow.
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Just look at Emma Stone’s face in Poor Things. Look at it!
Who Will Win:
Oppenheimer.
Who Should Win:
Poor Things.
Best Original Score
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
I can’t remember the music in any of these movies!
Who Will Win:
Oppenheimer.
Who Should Win:
Daniel Day-Lewis.
Best Original Song
‘The Fire Inside’ – Flamin’ Hot
‘I’m Just Ken’ – Barbie
‘It Never Went Away’ – American Symphony
‘Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)’ – Killers of the Flower Moon
‘What Was I Made For?’ – Barbie
I watched Flamin’ Hot and I don’t remember ‘The Fire Inside’, but I have to assume that it’s a real song that did appear in the movie. We all do. But people love those Barbie songs. And people hate that Barbie wasn’t nominated for more awards. That love and hate only makes the Barbenheimer grow stronger.
Who Will Win:
‘What Was I Made For?’
Who Should Win:
‘I’m Just Ken’.
Best Production Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
I enjoyed the steampunk aesthetic of Poor Things. I also enjoyed the steampunk aesthetic of Napoleon, until I realised that wasn’t steampunk at all. Then I looked steampunk up in the dictionary and found only a photo of… the Barbenheimer.
Who Will Win:
Oppenheimer.
Who Should Win:
Barbie.
Best Animated Short Film
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
I haven’t seen any of these movies, which I’m sure was part of the Barbenheimer’s plan.
Who Will Win:
Daniel Day-Lewis.
Who Should Win:
Barbie.
Best Live Action Short Film
The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
I didn’t understand a word of The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar. Also, I’m not sure I actually saw it. I watched a Roald Dahl/Wes Anderson short, but I’m not sure which one it was. I suppose there’s no way we can ever truly know which one I saw. I definitely saw The After, starring David Oyelowo, which was incredibly powerful.
Who Will Win:
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar.
Who Should Win:
The After.
Best Sound
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
Mission: Impossible was one of the best movies of the year. I don’t know why it wasn’t nominated for more stuff. I guess Tom Cruise’s epic charisma is a little overwhelming for people.
You might be tempted to go with Oppenheimer for this one, but are you aware of the rate at which the Young Sheldon empire is spreading? It’s been on for seven seasons. Seven! And now there’s a spin-off planned, starring the apparently well-known characters “Georgie and Mandy”. What? This is terrifying and no one is talking about it. Maybe we’ll be ready to face reality on Oscars night.
Who Will Win:
The Young Sheldon Cinematic Universe.
Who Should Win:
Mission: Impossible.
Best Visual Effects
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
They all look great, but Mission: Impossible is the best movie on this list by a long shot.
I don’t want to be paranoid, but I’m a little unnerved by the fact that neither Barbie nor Oppenheimer were nominated in this category. Feels like a trap. Nice try, Barbenheimer.
Who Will Win:
Oppenheimer.
Who Should Win:
Barbie.
When all is said and done, when the glitz and the glam have been swept away, there will be questions. Has the Barbenheimer had her fill? Or will she be back to feast on 2024? Either way — and I take no pride in saying this — I will almost certainly be proven to be the best Oscars predictions person there is.
Nick Bhasin is the Managing Editor of Junkee. His debut novel, I Look Forward to Hearing from You, published by Penguin Random House Australia, is out now. Follow him on Instagram or Twitter (he’s not calling it X).