You’ve probably been hearing a lot about the Wentworth by-election that’s coming up this weekend, and you’re thinking, ‘why should I care about a vote happening in Bondi?’.

Well, strap in, because this vote is about a lot more than whether there should be more bus services between the beach and the train station (there should, especially on weekends), it’s also about refugees, Israel, queer rights and whether the government can hold onto power.

Why Is There A Vote And Why Does It Matter?

Remember just six weeks ago (!!!) when Malcolm Turnbull lost the Prime Ministership in one of the great clusterfucks in Australian history, and Scott Morrison was unexpectedly made PM? Well, Turnbull made good on his threat to immediately quit parliament following the spill, and jetted off to New York for some relaxation and petty drama.

There needs to be a by-election to find Turnbull’s replacement. So this Saturday, the good people of Wentworth (which includes suburbs like Darlinghurst, Bondi and Vaucluse), will go the polls to elect a new MP.

Normally, this wouldn’t be a very big deal. Under Turnbull, Wentworth was a very safe seat for the Liberal party, but voters there are angry about the way Turnbull was treated, and he was more personally popular than the party anyway.

That means the party’s new candidate, Dave Sharma, is in very real danger of losing the seat. And that means the government is in danger of losing its majority. And that means the government would no longer be able to pass legislation by itself, it would have to rely on the opposition or crossbenchers to get anything done, and that’s a recipe for chaos.

What Are The Issues In Wentworth?

Sure, the candidates are talking about the usual issues like education and healthcare, but this by-election has actually taken on a much bigger profile than that.

Here are a few facts about Wentworth: It’s quite wealthy but also quite progressive. It’s extremely gay, and it has a large Jewish population. Because of these factors, a bunch of very polarising issues have popped up over the last few weeks:

Refugees

To put it simply, Australia’s off-shore detention system is in crisis. A bunch of kids are locked up on hellish torture islands. They’re getting more and more sick, people are dying, and doctors are being thrown off the island and arrested.

The people of Wentworth vote Liberal, but they’re not fire-breathing conservatives. They don’t like seeing kids in pain, and they want them taken off the islands. That’s why Scott Morrison has made some noises this week about striking a deal with New Zealand to take the refugees.

Do we believe ScoMo? This is a guy who has a trophy about stopping boats in his office.

“Religious Freedom”

Remember that leak of the Ruddock religious freedom review? That wasn’t an accident. One of the report’s supposed recommendations — to give religious schools more power to give queer kids and teachers the boot — would be poison in Wentworth, which voted 81% Yes in the marriage equality postal survey.

Initially, Morrison, who is deeply religious, seemed to support the idea that religious schools should be able to sack gay teachers. But then he quickly realised he needed to change his tune with the by-election approaching. Now the government is actually trying to strengthen protections for gay students.

Israel

This one is probably the most cynical. Wentworth has a large Jewish population, and Dave Sharma, who is a former ambassador to Israel, supports the idea of moving our Israel embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

Without going too deep into the complexities of this issue, moving the embassy would be an extremely controversial decision by the government. It would piss off a lot of countries in the middle east, it would piss off a lot of Australia’s Muslim population, and it would piss off one of our closest allies — Indonesia. It would have huge ramifications for Australia’s trade, foreign affairs and defence policies.

But hey, there’s an election to win in 38 square kilometres of eastern Sydney, so fuck it, right?

Morrison left the door open to moving the embassy, which did indeed piss off Indonesia. You can bet that the PM will drop this idea as soon as the by-election is over. As we said, deeply, deeply cynical.

It’s Ok To Be White

Pauline Hanson put up a motion in the Senate this week reminding us all that “it’s ok to be white”. The government stupidly supported it — they even tweeted about why they supported it — but then the mother of all shitstorms hit the fan, and they changed their tune. You can bet that part of the reason for that was the reaction in Wentworth.

So What’s Gonna Happen On Saturday?

Well, no one knows. It’s a race between Sharma and high profile independent Kerryn Phelps. Phelps is a Wentworth dream — a high profile queer rights campaigner, a wealthy doctor and former president of the AMA, and she’s Jewish.

Labor’s candidate Tim Murray will likely come third, and his preferences should flow to Phelps. Depending on the flow of other preferences, Phelps may be able to take over Sharma and win the seat. It could be days before we know the result.

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Rob Stott is the Managing Editor of Junkee Media. You can yell at him about politics @Rob_Stott.