Is One Nation Really “Soaring” In The Polls? Not Quite, But We Shouldn’t Be Complacent

This morning The Australian published its regular Newspoll results. Overall the poll showed little change between the major parties, but it was the result for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party that has attracted the most headlines.

The Australian wrote “support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party has risen fourfold across the nation since the election and almost doubled to 10 per cent in Queensland.” Other media outlets have followed up that angle , talking about the party’s apparent meteoric rise in the past few months, although The Guardian’s snap analysis of the poll argued the results weren’t as “impressive” as they first appeared.

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One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts has boasted about the result on Twitter, saying “This is what happens when you say the things that need to be said and do the things that need to be done.”

This is what happens when you say the things that need to be said and do the things that need to be done. #auspol pic.twitter.com/Ik0SoO9onD

— Sen. Malcolm Roberts (@SenatorMRoberts) October 16, 2016

But has support for One Nation really increased “fourfold” since the last election? Not really, but the latest polls show the party is still solidifying its support across the country.

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What Was One Nation’s Result At The 2016 Federal Election?

By any definition One Nation had a complete scorcher of an election result. They elected four senators (two in Queensland, one in NSW and one in WA) and are now the fourth biggest bloc of votes in the Senate. But comparing today’s poll to July’s election result requires us to look at the actual percentage of the vote One Nation achieved, not the total number of senators they elected.

In the House of Representatives One Nation secured just 1.3 percent of the vote but in the senate the party scored 4.3 percent. Why the big gap? Essentially it’s because One Nation, unlike Labor, the Coalition or the Greens, didn’t run candidates in all 150 House of Representatives seats. In fact the party only ran in 15 seats – 12 in Queensland and three in NSW. In those 15 seats One Nation got between six percent and 21 percent of the vote. But their national figure is lower, because they didn’t field candidates in most of the country. They weren’t on the ballot paper in 135 out of 150 seats.

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The senate is different. One Nation ran senate candidates in every state in the country. So they were on the ballot paper everywhere, outside of the ACT and NT. How did they perform in the Senate?

Nationally they got 4.3 percent of the vote. There was massive variation between the states however, ranging from a high of 9.2 percent in Queensland (boo) to a low of 1.8 percent in Victoria (yay).  These numbers are a more accurate reflection of One Nation’s actual electoral support, since all voters have the opportunity to vote for them in the senate.

Even though polls like Newspoll ask voters about their House of Representatives vote, it makes more sense to compare the poll results to One Nation senate vote. Otherwise you’re asking poll respondents whether they would vote a party that most likely wasn’t even on their House of Reps ballot paper.

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What Do The Polls Say?

Today’s Newspoll shows One Nation would receive six percent of the vote if an election were held now. That’s up one percent from last month, and up 4.7 percent compared to the 2016 House of Representatives result.  But compared to the last senate result, it’s only an increase of 1.7 percent. Not quite the dramatic fourfold increase some of the headlines would have you believe.

Newspoll also breaks down the result on a state by state basis. In Queensland One Nation is on 10 percent, an increase of one percent from the election. In NSW its on six percent, a slight increase from 4.1 percent at the election.

The Essential poll also tracks support for One Nation. The most recent poll, from last week, showed One Nation on six percent. So based on the data we have, it’s fair to say One Nation is hovering around the six percent figure nationally and is still doing best in Queensland. While that’s a slight increase compared to the last election, it’s not really evidence the party is “soaring”.

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Phew, We Have Nothing To Worry About!

Not quite. We’ve established that One Nation hasn’t massively increased its vote compared to the election. But the party is clearly cementing its position on the Australian political landscape. It continues to receive significant media attention (including regular appearances from Hanson on Sunrise) and the party is in a crucial balance of power position in the senate. If you’re concerned about One Nation’s policies and rhetoric, you should be concerned that the party is solidifying its support.

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The Greens are sitting on 10 percent of the vote, according to the latest polls. And that’s after a sustained presence in parliament for two decades. The fact that One Nation is hitting 6 percent after only re-entering parliament in July demonstrates the momentum they’ve got.

It’s still early days. We don’t know if the party will crash and burn, like the Palmer United Party, over the next three years of parliament. But while the polls don’t show an impending One Nation landslide, they are a reminder that progressives still need get their act together if they want to challenge, and defeat, Pauline Hanson.