Junk Explained: There Might Be A Leadership Spill Against Tony Abbott Next Week. What Happens Now?

Earlier this afternoon WA Liberal MP Luke Simpkins emailed his colleagues announcing he will move a spill motion against Prime Minister Tony Abbott when the Liberal party room meets on Tuesday. It is, as they say in the trade, “on”.

#BREAKING: MP Luke Simpkins has confirmed a spill motion for the Liberal leadership will be called on Tuesday #auspol pic.twitter.com/n5HYA3v3cD

— 7News Yahoo!7 (@Y7News) February 6, 2015

If you turn on any TV channel between now and Tuesday morning, you’re fairly certain to see journalists swapping rumours, speculating on motives, and cutting open the livers of yearling calves to try and get some indication of what’s going on. In reality, what’s going to happen between now and then is anyone’s guess — Julia Gillard didn’t know she was challenging for Prime Minister until literally the day it happened — and whether or not a leadership change would actually have a real-world impact on anything is kind of debatable in itself.

But it’s worth going over what’s actually going to happen on Tuesday, and what it’ll mean if it pans out in various ways.

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What’s A Spill Motion?

It’s more important to know what a spill motion isn’t — no one’s called on Tony Abbott to step down as Prime Minister, or for anyone else to replace him. Simpkins has moved a motion that the Liberal Party’s leadership be declared vacant  at a party-room meeting on Tuesday, and his motion has been seconded by another Liberal MP, Don Randall. There’s a big gap between that motion being moved and Australia getting a new Prime Minister.

For one, the motion itself will have to pass. Think of a party-room meeting as being like a board meeting in a company — members can move motions that get voted on by the board, and if a majority of people vote for a motion, it gets carried. There are 102 Liberal Members of Parliament, and all of them get a vote in a Liberal party-room meeting, meaning that 52 Liberal MPs would need to vote in favour of Simpkins’ motion for the Liberal Party leadership to be declared vacant. If a majority of MPs vote the motion down, there’s no leadership contest and Tony Abbott stays as head of the party, and as Prime Minister.

Obviously, some MPs might be keen on voting for a spill because they think Tony Abbott’s no good and they want someone else to be the new leader. Alternatively, some MPs who want Abbott to stay on as PM might vote for a spill too, because emphatically re-electing him would be a good look — that’s why Labor MP Simon Crean called a leadership spill during Julia Gillard’s Prime Ministership in 2013. Either way, if the spill motion passes the position of Liberal Party leader becomes vacant, and things could get interesting.

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Who’s Challenging Tony Abbott’s Leadership?

No one — yet. Technically, anyone can nominate themselves for the leadership if the position becomes vacant, and the party room will have to put it to a vote if more than one person nominates. Tony Abbott will obviously nominate himself if a spill motion is passed, and if no one else puts their hand up he’ll be re-elected unopposed.

None of the people who maybe want Tony Abbott’s job, like Julie Bishop and Malcolm Turnbull, have said they’ll support Simpkins’ motion, or that they’re going to challenge Abbott for the leadership, but that doesn’t mean Tony Abbott will find himself without an opponent on Tuesday. Last week various media outlets reported that Queensland Liberal MP Mal Brough might challenge Abbott for the leadership if a spill motion passes, even though he has basically no chance of winning, to test how many MPs would be willing to openly vote against the PM. If enough MPs are unhappy enough with Abbott to publicly vote for someone else, even if that person’s not a serious candidate for Prime Minister, it would look pretty bad for Abbott’s authority and could lead to a more organised challenge in the future.

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Why Tuesday? Why Not Now?

When Julia Gillard announced she was challenging Kevin Rudd in 2009, things moved so quickly that the Labor Party didn’t even bother putting it to a vote. This time round, things are happening much more slowly, which suggests there isn’t a big organised push to get rid of Abbott the way there was with Kevin Rudd. Luke Simpkins is just some random backbencher; if Malcolm Turnbull has sent that email around today, chances are they wouldn’t wait around until Tuesday to find out how that might go. The Liberal Party has had a party-room meeting scheduled for Tuesday for quite a while, and unless something really big happens over the weekend it won’t get rescheduled sooner.

Basically, it’s pretty likely Tony Abbott’s still going to be Prime Minister this time next week, but that doesn’t mean his leadership will be safe in the long-term. Julia Gillard survived two spills before Kevin Rudd became Prime Minister again, and Paul Keating lost his first challenge against Bob Hawke. If Abbott gets through this leadership challenge, it might only be until the next one comes along.

Until then, see you next Tuesday.

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Feature image via the CFMEU/Twitter.