Voting in this year’s triple j Hottest 100 countdown has finally wrapped up and when the results are announced this weekend, there’s a very good chance it will set a bunch of new records.

The Hottest 100 elicits a lot of strong opinions from people, whether it’s the order the songs place (“Fuck off mate, Lorde was robbed”) or the existence of the annual countdown itself (“Fuck off mate, I stopped listening to new music in 2008”).

Regardless of your personal opinion the countdown has become a cultural phenomenon. It’s a fascinating insight into the music Australia has been consuming, and loving, over the past 12 months. And the enormous (if at times unhinged) debate around triple j changing the date proves the Hottest 100 matters to a lot of people, even if you think you’re too cool for it.

Lately the Hottest 100 has been criticised for the high number of straight white men featured in the countdown. But could this be the year things finally change?

Australia Loves White Men

Over the past 24 years, only four winning tracks in the Hottest 100 have featured female vocalists. And only two of those tracks were by groups fronted by women (The Cranberries and Angus and Julia Stone), as opposed to songs with a female guest vocalist (Gotye featuring Kimbra and Flume featuring Kai).

Going back to 1993, when the current version of the countdown began, the most common number of women-fronted acts featured in the top 10 is a tie between zero and one. The average number is 0.9. It’s a pretty bleak situation.

In the history of the Hottest 100 no person of colour has ever won. In more than half the countdowns to date, the top 10 featured zero people of colour. And when you look specifically at local artists from diverse backgrounds the numbers are even worse.

Only two non-white Australian artists have ever cracked the top 10 in the Hottest 100. Quan from Regurgitator in 1998 with the huge ‘! (The Song Formerly Known As)’, and N’fa Forster-Jones from 1200 Techniques in 2002 with ‘Karma’.

No Indigenous artist has ever made been voted into the top 10.

The good news is that this year’s countdown looks like set to be historic on a number of fronts when it comes to diversity in music. Here’s how.

Records Are Going To Be Broken And It’s About Time

No one can predict the Hottest 100 with perfect accuracy but there are a few tools we can use to get a pretty good read on the likely outcome, especially the top 10.

The Warmest Tunas website analyses posts people make on social media when they share their votes to predict the winner. They’ve got pretty good form — in 2016 they very nearly predicted the entire top ten, although they placed Amy Shark’s ‘Adore’ above Flume’s ‘Never Be Like You’ — which went on to win.

The site is regularly updated with new votes but there’s one track that’s miles ahead: Kendrick Lamar’s ‘HUMBLE.’.

If Kendrick grabs the top spot it will be first time in history a person of colour has placed that high. The highest placing for a person of colour so far is also Kendrick, who placed second in last year’s countdown with ‘King Kunta’. He was squeezed out by a five-piece rock band from Menangle, NSW called The Rubens.

The betting markets are also strongly predicting a ‘HUMBLE.’ victory, with the track way ahead of its nearest competitors.

If ‘HUMBLE.’ pulls through it will be the second hip-hop song to win the Hottest 100. The first hip-hop tune to win was… ‘Thrift Shop’ by Macklemore and Ryan Lewis in 2012.

Other people of colour predicted to reach the top 10 include rap collective BROCKHAMPTON and Gang of Youths. Arnhem Land rapper Baker Boy also looks set to feature in the top 10, which would make him the first Indigenous artist to do so.

‘Marryuna’, the Baker Boy track expected to do well, is partly rapped in the Yolngu language which means we’re also potentially about to see the first non-English language song make the top 10.

So when it comes to cultural diversity it looks like we’re about to reach some pretty significant milestones in this year’s Hottest 100. But it’s not all good news.

Where Are All The Women?

As we’ve already covered voters in the Hottest 100 haven’t exactly embraced women-fronted acts, and disappointingly it doesn’t look like things are going to change much this year.

Despite the fact artists like Alex Lahey, Vera Blue, Angie McMahon, Camp Cope and Meg Mac have dropped huge tunes this year, only a handful of women artists are predicted to make the top 10.

Warmest Tunas is predicting Lorde to claim the seventh spot with ‘Green Light’ and Angus and Julia are expected to come in one position higher with ‘Chateau’. They’re the only two women-fronted acts likely to crack the top 10, though both Warmest Tunas and the betting markets are giving Alex Lahey a decent shot at a high position as well.

That means this year’s Hottest 100 will have the same number of women as 2016, but less than in 2013 and 2009.

When it comes to queer artists things are even worse. Only three queer acts have ever featured in the Hottest 100 top 10: Frank Ocean, Scissor Sisters and Missy Higgins. This time around it doesn’t look like any will make it.

We’re In For A Bittersweet Countdown

For those of us who think diversity in music is important this year’s Hottest 100 is a mixed bag. Kendrick’s likely victory is a huge moment and way over due, as is Baker Boy’s predicted debut.

But the continued underrepresentation of women points to some pretty significant structural problems within the industry. Hopefully the result, if it’s as predicted, will lead to more people listening to artists from diverse backgrounds talk about what those problems are and how we can fix them.

In the meantime I’m going to pray for a perfect miracle: a tie between ‘HUMBLE.’ and ‘Green Light’. Feel free to join me.