James Mathison Could Actually Take Down Tony Abbott In Warringah

James Mathison’s announcement that he has decided to stand as an independent candidate against former Prime Minister Tony Abbott in the seat of Warringah was, for many people, the first vaguely interesting to happen so far in the election campaign.

Mathison has outlined the “broken” system of politics, inaction on climate change, same-sex marriage and refugees, along with Abbott’s failure to act on important local issues in his electorate as the key issues that motivated his run.

There’s no doubt he has a strong national media profile (bolstered recently by his protest against the chopping down of 130-year-old trees in Sydney’s Moore Park), solid local connections (he was born and educated in the electorate) and excellent communication skills.

But can he actually beat Tony Abbott?

Abbott has held the northern Sydney seat of Warringah, which takes in suburbs like Manly, Frenchs Forest and Dee Why, for the past two decades. In 2013 he won the seat with 60 per cent of the primary vote.

It’s a pretty safe Liberal seat. But there is a potential pathway for Mathison to win – if he can target the right voters and pull in preferences from the Greens, Labor and other independents.

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The Path To Victory

As long as Tony Abbott wins more than 50 percent of the primary vote the seat will remain his. So Mathison’s first task is to make sure he takes enough votes away from Abbott to get him under that 50 percent figure.

If Mathison draws about 15-20 percent of the vote away from Abbott, he’s in with a shot. That means the former PM would be sitting on a vote of about 40-45 per cent, and potentially could lose his seat.

But how could Mathison win a seat with just 15-20 per cent of the vote? The answer: Preferences.

In our electoral system the votes of candidates who can’t win get distributed to other candidates using preferential voting. So if you vote 1 for the Greens, but they don’t get enough votes to win in that seat, your vote then goes to the candidate you voted 2 for. The candidates who received the least amount of votes get excluded first and their votes then flow on until there are only two candidates left.

The video below does a pretty good job of explaining the whole process:

At the least federal election the Greens polled 15 percent in Warringah. If Mathison manages to snag that 20 percent from Abbott, and the Greens encourage their voters to preference him number 2, he would likely pick up the vast majority of those votes.

Let’s say for simplicity’s sake he gets all those votes. That puts on him on 35 percent. He’s starting to creep up on Abbott.

Labor snagged about 20 percent of the vote at the last election in Warringah. Since that’s less than Mathison’s vote, Labor would be knocked out of their race and that 20 percent would be up for grabs. In a race between Abbott and Mathison you’d expect most Labor voters to preference Mathison number 2. If Mathison manages to add Labor’s 20 percent of the vote to his total of 35 percent, all of a sudden he’s on 55 percent and has won a majority.

He’s beaten Tony Abbott.

The actual election is likely to be a bit more complex than that, but basically that’s a realistic scenario showing how Mathison could end up winning the seat by only taking a relatively small amount of votes (about 20,000 in total) off Abbott.

The key thing is Mathison needs to draw votes away from Abbott. If all he manages to do is pick up votes off Labor and the Greens it won’t help him win the seat. To make things a bit tougher Nick Xenophon, the popular independent senator from South Australia, is also running a candidate under the Nick Xenophon Team umbrella  in Warringah. So Mathison will have competition for the independent vote.

This. Many are saying it’s unachievable . But with the right momentum and preferences, it’s entirely possible. https://t.co/d5F0i4jBGv

— James Mathison (@jamesmathison) May 28, 2016

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The Issues

So far Mathison’s talked a lot about appealing to young voters who feel locked out of our political system. That, plus the fact that his big issues so far are climate change, same-sex marriage and refugee policy make it likely he’ll draw votes off the Greens and Labor. Every vote is useful, but he can only win if he manages to reduce the Liberal vote.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics the largest age bracket in Warringah are people aged 35-39. They would’ve been in their early 20s when Mathison was hosting Australian Idol, so his name recognition would probably be pretty high.

And despite the reputation Sydney’s northern suburbs have as a heartland for mean old conservatives, the community rallied pretty strongly a couple of years ago to oppose development in public parkland in Warringah. Abbott faced a revolt from Liberal members and voters who felt passionately about protecting their natural environment. If Mathison can tap into those sorts of local issues (which he already seems to be doing), he might have a chance of drawing votes away from Abbott and the Liberals.

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And What If He Does Win?

Well, the polls are suggesting we might be facing another hung parliament – where neither major party has the numbers to form majority government. An independent candidate winning in Warringah increases the chances of a hung parliament.

So if Mathison does manage to win he could become one of the most powerful politicians in Australia.

It’s a big if, and it’s too early to tell what kind of impact Mathison will have among Warringah voters, but if he does pull it off he could be deciding who forms government, whether Bill Shorten or Malcolm Turnbull become prime minister and what becomes law.

There’s never been a more exciting time to be an Australian.

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Osman Faruqi is a Sydney-based writer and broadcaster. You can follow him on Twitter at@oz_f